More Canadians could have trouble weathering future economic downturns than in the past due to a steady decline in job quality over the last 20 years, according to a new report by CIBC Capital Markets. The report, On The Quality of Employment in Canada, finds that the share of Canadians making less than the average wage each year has edged up to nearly 61% from about 58% over the last 20 years. The average wage today is about $25 an hour.

The report’s analysis looked solely at wages, using unpublished data from Statistics Canada.

“Is the quality of employment in Canada on the decline? We think so,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist, CIBC Capital Markets, who authored the report. “The share of low-paying jobs in Canada has been on the rise in the past two decades and might provide some insights on the ability of workers, in aggregate, to absorb future economic shocks.”

The report examined demographic issues that can skew job quality trends — in particular, the declining share of young Canadians and the rising share of older Canadians — and found of Canadians in their prime working years, age 25 to 54 years, 53% make less than the average wage today, up 3% from 20 years ago.

“The story is the same: The share of lower-paying jobs has been on the rise,” Tal said.

The most significant increase in the below-average paying jobs category occurred among those in the wage range of between 50% and 100% of the average wage in a given year. That group has seen its number rise by close to two million since 1997. No less than 6.7 million workers fall into that wage category.

The report also looks at wage growth by wage percentile and found further evidence of a widening income gap.

“The good news is that those at the lowest end of the wage spectrum are seeing relatively healthy wage gains — not due to bargaining power but mostly due to policy changes regarding minimum wages,” Tal said. “But the group closer to the middle of the wage spectrum has seen sub-par growth.”

The share of Canadians working in part-time employment made an “unmistakeable jump” to 20% during the 2009 recession from its more-consistent 18% level in the previous decade, the report notes. Tal highlighted that the share of part-time workers has yet to return to pre-recession levels, sitting currently at 19.5%.