Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics have grown more optimistic about economic growth, and expectations for employment growth have also improved.

Second-quarter real gross domestic product is now forecast to increase 8.5% at an annualized rate, according to the median response in the NABE Outlook Survey. This would be a strong acceleration from the actual growth rate of 6.4% in the first quarter and higher than the median forecast of 5.2% in the March survey. The median forecast for the growth rate in the third quarter also rose to 6.2% from 5.6% in the previous survey; the median forecast for the fourth quarter remains at 4.8%.

“The panel has become significantly more bullish about 2021 as a whole,” said NABE President Manuel Balmaseda, who is also chief economist at Cemex. “The median real GDP growth estimate for 2021 is 6.7%, compared to the 4.8% forecasted in the March 2021 survey.”

NABE panelists’ views are also more upbeat on employment growth. The panel now expects the recovery to occur sooner, with 66% of survey respondents anticipating nonfarm payrolls will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 or the fourth quarter 2021. Ten percent expect this to occur in Q4 2021, 27% in the first half of 2022, and 29% in the second half 2022. This in an improvement from the March survey, where 59% anticipated that to occur in 2023 or later.

The median projection for monthly nonfarm payroll employment growth in 2021 is now 566,100, compared to 351,000 in the previous survey. While panelists do not expect employment growth to be as strong in 2022 as in 2021, the median forecast calls for 281,000 monthly net new jobs, approximately 9% more than the 258,000 forecasted in the March survey.

The report presents the consensus macroeconomic forecast of a panel comprising 49 professional forecasters; the survey took place from May 7 to May 13.