Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics maintained their growth projections for the US economy in 2017, the association announced today. The median forecast calls real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2017, increasing to 2.4% for 2018. Both these forecasts are unchanged from the June 2017 estimates.

Real GDP grew 1.6% in 2016.

“Despite a healthy increase in economic activity since the first quarter of the year, the weak start to the year is expected to hold the average annual real GDP growth rate in 2017 to 2.2%,” said NABE VP-Elect Kevin Swift, chief economist and managing director, American Chemistry Council.

Panelists forecast nonfarm payroll growth to average 178,000 jobs per month in 2017, unchanged from the June survey and slightly below the actual job gains of 187,000 per month in 2016. The panel’s forecast for 2018 reflects a further slowdown in job creation — to 160,000 per month, virtually unchanged from the 159,000 projection in the June survey.

However, the unemployment rate is now expected to average 4.4% this year, a decrease from the 4.5% projected in the June forecast. On a quarterly basis, the unemployment rate is expected to average 4.4% in the third quarter of 2017, and then improve slightly to 4.3% in the fourth quarter. The forecast for 2018 of 4.2% is also below the 4.3% rate projected for 2018 in the June forecast.

Expectations for hourly compensation growth in 2017 are much weaker than those projected in the June survey at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in the previous survey. This partly reflects a downward revision to compensation growth in 2016, to 1.0% from 2.9%. The panel expects hourly compensation growth of 3.0% in 2018.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 47 forecasters and was conducted between Aug. 24 and Sept. 7, 2017.