Economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics lowered slightly their growth projections for the US economy in 2017, the association announced today. The median forecast calls real GDP growth of 2.2% for 2017, increasing to 2.4% for 2018. Both these forecasts are down 0.1 percentage points from the March 2017 estimates.

Real GDP grew 1.6% in 2016.

“Despite soft economic growth in the first quarter of 2017, results from the NABE June 2017 Outlook Survey show that panelists’ expectations have been revised downward only slightly compared to those in the March 2017 Outlook Survey,” said NABE President Stuart Mackintosh, executive director, Group of Thirty. “The weakness in the first quarter is expected to be temporary, with real gross domestic product growth projected to bounce back to an annualized rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017, and to about a 2.5% pace in the second half of the year.”

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 52 forecasters and was conducted between May 2 and May 16.

Panelists forecast nonfarm payroll growth to average 178,000 jobs per month in 2017, down from 183,000 forecast in the March survey and below the actual job gains of 187,000 per month in 2016. The panel’s forecast for 2018 of 159,000 new nonfarm payrolls per month is also down slightly from the 166,000-per-month job gain projections for 2018 in the March survey.

However, the unemployment rate is now expected to average 4.5% this year, a slight improvement from the 4.6% projected in the March forecast. The forecast for 2018 of 4.3% is also below the 4.5% rate projected for 2018 in the March forecast.

Expectations for hourly compensation growth in 2017 are slightly firmer than those projected in the March survey at 3.1% — more than the 2.9% increase in 2016 and above the expected pace of consumer price inflation.