The US economy will go into recession sometime this year, according to 53% of economic forecasters surveyed in the, according to the “March 2023 Economic Policy Survey” released by the National Association for Business Economics. The report also found that majority of forecasters believe inflation will remain elevated.

“More than half of NABE policy survey panelists expect a recession at some point in 2023,” said NABE President Julia Coronado, president and founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “However, only 5% believe the US is currently in a recession, far fewer than the 19% who held this view in the August Policy Survey.”

Nearly one-quarter of NABE economists, 24%, anticipate that the US will enter a recession in the third quarter of this year, according to the report. Another 16% of economists anticipate a recession starting in the second quarter of 2023, while 13% expect a recession in the fourth quarter.

Some panelists put a recession further out on the horizon. The survey found 2% of panelists anticipate a recession starting in the first half of 2024, while 22% do not expect a recession before the second half of 2024.

Inflation also remained a concern.

“Panelists generally agree on the outlook for inflation and the consequences of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve,” said NABE Policy Survey Chair Mervin Jebaraj of the University of Arkansas. “More than seven in 10 panelists believe that growth in the consumer price index will remain above 4% through the end of 2023, and more than two-thirds are not confident that the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% goal within the next two years without inducing a recession.”

The survey summarizes the responses of 217 NABE members between March 2 and March 10.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace.