US employers’ hiring plans for the fourth quarter indicate a slight increase both quarter over quarter and year over year, according to the fourth-quarter 2016 Manpower employment outlook survey released today by ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN).

Globally, employer hiring confidence for the fourth quarter is strongest in India, Japan, Taiwan and the US. The weakest forecasts are reported in Brazil, Belgium, Finland, Italy and Switzerland.

ManpowerGroup’s survey found 22% of US employers plan to increase staff in the fourth quarter, down 1% from the prior quarter’s forecast but a 1% increase from the fourth quarter of 2015; 6% plan to decrease staff, 69% expect no change in staff and 3% are undecided about their hiring intentions. This results in a net employment outlook of 18% when seasonally adjusted, an increase from 15% in the third quarter outlook and matching the strongest post-recession outlook reported in Q4 2015.

“Employers are optimistic, though hesitant, with their hiring intentions and we're pleased to see levels we were seeing before the recession,” said Kip Wright, senior VP of Manpower North America. “While employers are looking to grow their workforces, many are challenged to find candidates with the right skills. As the hiring outlook continues to improve, attracting and retaining skilled talent will become even more difficult. That's why we're hearing more about companies like AT&T and Marriott that are adopting strategies to develop their employees' skill sets and competing to attract those with the most in-demand skills – especially in industries like IT and engineering.”

Employers in Hawaii, Tennessee, Utah, Montana, Florida and Arizona report the strongest net employment outlooks, while Alaska, New Jersey, Wyoming, Puerto Rico and Indiana project the weakest outlooks.

Employers in all 13 industry sectors reported a net positive outlook. The industries with the highest seasonally adjusted net employment outlooks are leisure and hospitality at 30%, wholesale and retail trade at 22%, transportation and utilities at 20%, and professional and business services at 17%.

Regionally, net employment outlooks strengthened in all four US regions surveyed when compared with the third quarter. Hiring prospects are slightly stronger in the Northeast, the South and the West when compared with Q3 2016. In the Midwest, the Outlook remains relatively stable. Employers in the West region reported the strongest seasonally adjusted outlook at 19%, followed by the South at 18%. The Midwest and Northeast both reported seasonally adjusted outlooks of 16%.

Compared to the same time last year, hiring plans are slightly stronger in the West and remain relatively stable in the Midwest, the Northeast and the South.

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from more than 11,000 US employers.

Canada hiring trends

Canadian employers anticipate a “mild” hiring climate in the fourth quarter, with employers in the finance, insurance and real estate sector reporting the strongest job prospects, according to ManpowerGroup’s data for Canada.

In Canada, 14% of employers expect to increase staffing levels, 9% anticipate cutbacks, 76% forecast no change and 1% are unsure about hiring plans. This results in a net employment outlook of 8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, an increase of two percentage points when compared to both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year.

“The hiring climate is expected to be modest heading into the fourth quarter this year,” said Darlene Minatel, VP, Manpower Canada operations and strategic accounts. “It’s hard to ignore the impact that the sustained lower price of oil has had on the economy. However, there are certainly some bright spots. The real estate sector is very strong, especially in the red-hot markets of Toronto and Vancouver.”

Survey results for the fourth quarter of 2016 show that job seekers across Canada should expect varying degrees of hiring. Employers in Quebec expect the most hopeful hiring climate for the coming quarter, reporting a net employment outlook of 10%. Employers in Ontario and Atlantic Canada anticipate a mild hiring pace, with both regions expecting an outlook of 7%, while job seekers in Western Canada should plan for a conservative hiring climate, with employers reporting an outlook of 5%.

The industries with the highest seasonally adjusted net employment outlook were finance, insurance and real estate at 17%; transportation and public utilities at 16%; and services at 12%. Mining had the lowest seasonally adjusted net employment outlook at -3%.

ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey includes responses from more than 1,900 Canadian employers.