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Global CEO confidence falls in third quarter

October 05, 2017

Global CEO confidence fell for the second consecutive quarter in the third quarter after increasing to prerecession highs in the first quarter, according to The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence. In the third quarter, the measure declined to a level of 59, down from 61 in the second quarter.

A reading of more than 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.

“CEO confidence declined again in the third quarter and has cooled since hitting pre-recession highs at the start of this year,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “CEOs still rate current conditions in the US favorably, but their short-term expectations for growth have eased. CEOs also remain optimistic about the growth prospects for both mature and emerging economies, but expectations for Brazil are moderately negative. Regarding spending plans, about 29% of CEOs say they have boosted their capital spending plans since January and only 14% claim they have scaled plans back.”

CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy is slightly more pessimistic. Currently, 39% expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 41% last quarter. Additionally, 14% expect economic conditions to worsen, compared to 3% last quarter.

The outlook for their own industries was also less favorable, with 36% of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, down from 48% in the second quarter of this year.

CEOs’ assessment of current conditions for the US moderated from levels seen in the second quarter, while their assessment of current conditions for Europe and Japan were more positive. Despite a slight decline, CEOs’ assessment of current conditions remains positive for India. Sentiment for China was neutral, while that for Brazil held steady at slightly negative.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ short-term expectations for the US and Europe remain positive, but are less upbeat than last quarter. Expectations for India improved slightly, while sentiment regarding China and Japan remained slightly positive. The outlook for Brazil continued to deteriorate.