The second estimate of growth in the US real gross domestic product shows an annual increase rate of 2.9% in the third quarter of 2022, according to a second estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP had decreased 0.6% in the second quarter.

The GDP estimate is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued in October. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6%.

CNN reported the growth is a marked turnaround from economic contractions of 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, 0.6% in the second quarter and the Refinitiv forecast of 2.7%. However, there are concerns that the strong reading does not necessarily remove the risk forecast by economists of the US economy falling into recession at some point in 2023.

The second estimate reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Meanwhile, imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased more than previously estimated.