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GDP gets upward estimate

February 26, 2016

US real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.0% in the fourth quarter, according to a new estimate that revises upward a previous estimate of 0.7%.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0%.

Growth is projected to re-accelerate this year as consumers tap into the benefits of a strengthening job market and savings on gasoline to boost spending, Bloomberg reported. With companies making less headway in adjusting stockpiles, one risk for the economy is further weakness in manufacturing and business investment.

TD economics Senior Economist Fotios Raptis reported the US economy is on track to grow above trend this year despite substantial external headwinds.

“Weakness in the manufacturing sector appears to be beginning to subside as new orders for durable goods ex-transportation strengthen and industrial production is ticking up,” Raptis wrote. “Moreover, retail sales are robust and automobile sales remain strong, with both likely supported by further labor market improvement, helping inflation gradually rise back to target. Although new housing data disappointed for January, existing home sales exceeded consensus expectations, further reinforcing our narrative of the recovery in the US housing market gaining steam in 2016.”

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.