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Employment trends steady, NABE survey finds

July 18, 2016

The National Association for Business Economics’ June 2016 business conditions survey indicates job gains were more common than job losses in the second quarter, but plans for the third-quarter hiring eased from three months ago.

“The results of the most recent NABE Business Conditions Survey are mixed,” said NABE President Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, director of research, global asset allocation at Fidelity Investments. “Sales growth rebounded strongly in the second quarter among survey participants’ firms, but profit margins were flat, on balance. While net capital spending and employment trends were steady, the number of firms that cut employment and capital spending declined notably. In addition, panelists have ratcheted down their expectations for overall growth, with nearly two-thirds expecting GDP growth of 2% or lower over the next four quarters.” 

The share of respondents reporting rising employment at their firms over the past three months edged up to 30% from 29% in the April survey, while the share reporting a decrease in employment fell to 11% from 18% in the same survey three months ago.

The 30% share of respondents whose firms added workers is close to previous levels, but the 11% share reporting their firms had fewer workers is the smallest since the April 2015 survey.

The share of respondents who anticipate their firms will add workers in the next quarter fell to 29% in June from 35% in the April survey, while the share expecting job reductions held nearly steady at 18%. This results in a net rising index of 10, the lowest index reading since the NABE survey first asked this question in July 2014. As with responses covering the past three months, respondents in the goods-producing and transportation, utilities, information and communications sectors expect reduced headcounts at their firms, while respondents in the finance, insurance and real estate sectors and services sectors expect their firms will add employees.

The survey also asked panelists if their firms had difficulties filling open positions over the past three months; 31% reported their firms had difficulty filling open positions, down from 34% in the April survey.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace. The survey included 110 NABE members and was conducted between June 20 and June 29.