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Economy: Jobless claims drop, CEO confidence at 13-year high

April 06, 2017

Jobless claims fell last week much more than expected, while CEO confidence rose in the first quarter to a 13-year high.

The US four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 250,000 last week, down 4,500 from the previous week’s average, according to seasonally adjusted numbers released today by the US Department of Labor. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250.

The four-week moving average decreases the volatility of the weekly numbers. Total initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended April 1 fell to 234,000, down 25,000 from the previous week’s level, which was revised up by 1,000.

This marks 109 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the second-longest streak since the early 1970s.

MarketWatch reports initial claims fell to the second-lowest level of the current economic expansion and reflect a tight labor market in which firms say it’s hard to find good help. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial jobless claims to total 251,000.

Separately, The Conference Board reported CEO confidence rose again in the first quarter after a sharp rebound the prior quarter, according to its measure of CEO confidence. In the first quarter, the measure jumped to a level of 68, up from 65 in the fourth quarter of 2016.

A reading of more than 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.

“CEO Confidence improved further in early 2017, propelling the measure to its highest reading in nearly 13 years,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “CEOs were considerably more optimistic about short-term growth prospects in the US, and to a lesser degree, about prospects in other mature and emerging markets. Hiring plans have picked up compared to last year, with nearly two-thirds of CEOs anticipating an increase in employment levels in their industry. However, 40% say finding qualified workers is a major obstacle to hiring.”

CEOs’ short-term outlook for the US economy eased slightly but remains rather strong, with currently 65% expecting better economic conditions over the next six months compared to approximately 67% last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was more favorable, with 67% of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, up from 58% in the fourth quarter of 2016.

Globally, assessment of current conditions improved across the board, with sentiment for Europe and the US experiencing the biggest increases. CEOs' appraisal of conditions in China, Japan, India and Brazil also improved, and all measures are now in positive territory.