Economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve for its biannual Livingston Survey downgraded their prediction for real GDP growth in the US compared with their projections in June 2022. They project negative growth for the second half of next year.

For the first half of 2023, they forecast GDP to grow 0.4% on an annualized basis. In their previous survey, they had called for growth of 2.3%.

Looking to the second half of next year, they forecast the US economy would contract by 1.0%. This was their first estimate for the second half of 2023.

In addition, the forecasters anticipate a higher unemployment rate compared with their expectations in the previous survey.

They now expect the unemployment rate this month to be 3.7%, up from 3.4% cited in the June survey. According to their predictions, the jobless rate would keep rising and reach 4.9% in December 2023.

The forecasters have increased both their year-over-year predictions for consumer price index inflation for 2022, although they anticipate lowering inflation rates in the future. In 2023, CPI inflation is predicted to lower to 4.4% from an 8.1% estimate for this year. However, they expect CPI inflation to cool further to 2.6% in 2024.

The Livingston Survey was started in 1946 by the late columnist Joseph Livingston and is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations. The December survey included 16 respondents.