The Conference Board forecasts economic growth at an annualized rate 2.2% in first quarter of next year even amid the impact of Covid and other concerns. However, it’s more moderate than the 6.5% forecast for the current quarter and risks such as Covid and inflation continue.

Overall, The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index rose by 1.1% month over month in November to a reading of 119.9. That followed increases of 0.9% in October and 0.3% in September.

“The US [Leading Economic Index] rose sharply again in November, suggesting the current economic expansion will continue into the first half of 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “Inflation and continuing supply chain disruptions, as well as a resurgence of Covid-19, pose risks to GDP growth in 2022. Still, the economic impact of these risks may be contained.”