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Consumers more pessimistic this month on business conditions, labor market

January 29, 2019

Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions over the next six months as well as in the labor market, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. In addition, the recent government shutdown may have influenced the index.

A survey for the index found that fewer consumers, 16.0%, expect business conditions to improve over the next six months. That is down from 18.1% in the previous month’s survey. In addition, the percent of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen rose to 14.8% from 10.6% in the previous survey.

Consumers were also less optimistic about the labor market. The survey found 14.7% expect more jobs in the months ahead, down from 16.6% in the previous survey. And a greater percentage, 16.5%, believed there will be fewer jobs in the months ahead compared to the previous survey, which found 14.6% believed there will be fewer jobs.

Overall, the Consumer Confidence Index fell in January to a reading of 120.2 (1985=100), down from a reading of 126.6 in December. The index had also declined in December.

Financial market volatility and the government shutdown appear to have impacted consumers, said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board.

“Shock events such as government shutdowns (i.e., 2013) tend to have sharp, but temporary, impacts on consumer confidence,” Franco said. “Thus, it appears that this month’s decline is more the result of a temporary shock than a precursor to a significant slowdown in the coming months.”