Consumers’ expectations on inflation increased, and the number of consumers who believe US unemployment will be higher a year from now edged up, according to the March 2023 “Survey of Consumer Expectations,” released Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data.

It found that median inflation expectations increased by 0.5 of a percentage point at the one-year-ahead horizon to 4.7%. That marks the first increase in the series since October 2022.

Median inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point at the three-year-ahead horizon to 2.8% but decreased by 0.1 percentage point at the five-year-ahead horizon to 2.5%.

The report also found that 40.7% of those surveyed believe the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous survey. The increase was more pronounced for respondents with at least some college education, those between the ages of 40 and 60 and those with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.

On the other hand, consumers’ perceived probability of losing their job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.4 of a percentage point to 11.4%. The mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months also declined by 1.5 percentage point to 19.3%. 

The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) declined by 0.3 percentage point to 57.6% in March.

Consumers’ median expected growth in household income rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.3%.

The Survey of Consumer Expectations is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads.