Consumer confidence in the US fell for the third consecutive month in October, The Conference Board reported today. Its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 102.6 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised reading of 104.3 in September.

“October’s retreat reflected pullbacks in both the Present Situation and Expectations Index,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a press statement. “Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates.”

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market held steady in October, as 39.4% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down slightly from 39.7% in September. However, 13.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 14.2%.

On the other hand, consumers’ assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was slightly less favorable in October. While 16.0% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 16.2% in September, 19.0% anticipate fewer jobs, up slightly from 18.9%.

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — declined to a reading of 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2 reported in September.

The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — fell slightly to a reading of 75.6 (1985=100) in October after declining to 76.4 in September. The Expectations Index is still below 80 — the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. The Conference Board noted consumer fears of an impending recession remain elevated, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction anticipated for the first half of 2024.

“More than two-thirds of consumers still said recession is ‘somewhat’ or ‘very likely’ in October,” Peterson said. “The fluctuating soundings likely reflect ongoing uncertainty given mixed buying plans. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase autos and appliances rose while plans to buy homes — in line with rising interest rates — continued to trend downward.”