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Confidence in US economy rises among CPA execs

June 02, 2016

Optimism about the US economy among certified public accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies — such as CFO or controller — rose since last quarter, although those executives remain more guarded in outlook than they were a year ago, according to the second-quarter Economic Outlook Survey released by the American Institute of CPAs.

While 37% of CPAs in leadership positions expressed optimism about the US economy over the upcoming 12 months — up from a three-year low of 28% last quarter — that measure stood as high as 68% in the first quarter of 2015.

“The good news is the slide in sentiment about the US economy has reversed course and key performance indicators are pointing back up,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA’s senior VP of management accounting and global markets. “But there’s a long way to go to get back to the levels of optimism we saw in late 2014 and early 2015. On top of that, the presidential election and global economic uncertainty add some wild cards going forward.”

Overall, 49% of the executives surveyed reported their company currently has the right staffing, down from the 52% to 55% range reported over the past year. The percentage of companies that are planning to hire increased to 19% from 15%. Respondents who said they had too few employees but were reluctant to hire increased to 18% from 16% in the first-quarter survey.

Headcounts are now expected to increase by 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 0.5% last quarter. Business executives have some concern about the talent pool, however — “availability of skilled personnel” rose two spots to the No. 3 top challenge for businesses in the quarter.

Meanwhile, the CPA outlook index — a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey — rose five points in the second quarter to 68, but still remains well below a post-recession high of 78 set in the fourth quarter of 2014. An index rating above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

The survey of AICPA business and industry members was conducted from May 10 to May 26, 2016, and included 744 qualified responses.