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Confidence in US economy at highest level since 2004 among CPA execs

March 13, 2017

Optimism about the US economy rose among certified public accountants who hold leadership positions in their companies — such as CEO, CFO or controller — since the last quarter, according to the new Economic Outlook Survey released by the American Institute of CPAs.

Sixty-nine percent of the CPA executives surveyed expressed optimism about the 12-month outlook for the US economy, up from 62% in the fourth-quarter survey and the highest level since it stood at 71% at the end of 2004, the first year the survey was conducted.

“We saw a big jump in economic optimism following the election, and that has been reinforced and extended in our latest results,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA’s managing director of Americas market, global offerings and CGMA exam, management accounting. “Much of this positive sentiment is due to expectations of lower corporate taxes and reduced regulation under the new administration. I expect business executives will be monitoring progress on these goals closely.”

Business executives’ optimism about the outlook for their own organizations also rose to 66% from 61% in a previous survey amidst a year-long trend of rising expectations for profits and revenue.

Overall, 52% of the executives surveyed reported their company currently has the appropriate number of employees, within the range of 48% to 55% reported over the past year. The percentage of companies planning to hire rose to 22% from 20% in the fourth-quarter report. However, respondents who said they had too few employees but were reluctant to hire also edged up to 16% from 15% in the fourth-quarter survey.

Headcounts are now expected to increase by 1.8% over the next 12 months, up from 1.6% last quarter. Professional service is expected to be the strongest hiring sector, jumping to 3.9% growth from 2.5% in the fourth quarter. On the flip side, retail trade is expected to be the slowest, with hiring expected to decrease 0.3% compared to an increase of 0.8% in the prior quarter. Also notable is an expected slowdown in healthcare provider hiring, to 2.8% from 3.4%.

The report also found a growing perception of tightness in the labor market. “Availability of skilled personnel” is once again a top three concern for business executives, rising one spot to the No. 3 top challenge for businesses in the quarter from the fourth top concern last quarter, and “staff turnover” is now No. 9 on the list. A majority of respondents, 51%, now say their companies plan to increase spending for skills training and staff development.

Meanwhile, the CPA outlook index — a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey — rose two points in the first quarter to 76 with increases in all nine components. The overall index remains below a post-recession high of 78 set in the fourth quarter of 2014. An index rating above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

The survey of AICPA business and industry members was conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 22, and included 930 qualified responses.