Canada’s economy is expected to grow by just 1.6% in 2016 as the decline in commodity prices, subpar global economic growth and overstretched Canadian consumers will limit Canada’s real GDP growth, according to The Conference Board of Canada’s Canadian Outlook-Spring 2016. While modest, this is an improvement over last year’s growth of 1.2%.

The current global forecast is a key concern for Canada as it is expected to hurt Canadian export growth, according to the forecast. Additionally, the decline in energy prices alone has removed more than C$50 billion in export revenues from the economy.

“The decline in energy prices has stripped more than C$50 billion in export revenues from the economy, and it will take time to recover,” said Matthew Stewart, associate director, National Forecast. “Further dampening Canada’s outlook is the fact that Canadian consumers are stretched due to mounting household debt levels, while softer global growth will take some of the steam out of exports.”

Economic growth should accelerate to 2.2% in 2017, boosted by the non-energy sector.

The forecast does not include the economic impact of the Fort McMurray wildfires.