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CEOs lower outlook for GDP, hiring plans; economic outlook remains solid

March 21, 2019

CEOs now expect 2019 US gross domestic product growth of 2.5%, down from their estimate of 2.7% made in the fourth quarter, according to the Business Roundtable’s first-quarter 2019 CEO Economic Outlook Survey.

CEOs’ first-quarter hiring plans also declined. Expectations for sales and plans for capital investment also decreased.

The survey found 48% of respondents expect their company’s US employment to increase in the next six months, down from 56% in the fourth-quarter survey; 16% expect employment to decrease in the next six months, up from 14% in the prior survey. And 38% in this quarter’s survey expect no change.

“The economic outlook of Business Roundtable CEOs remains solid,” said Business Roundtable President and CEO Joshua Bolten. “Smart policies on tax reform and regulation have stimulated substantial hiring and business investment in the US over recent months.”

According to the survey, 73% of respondents expect their company’s sales to increase in the next six months, down from 80% in the fourth-quarter survey. And 48% expect US capital spending to increase in the next six months, down from 56% in the prior quarter’s survey.

The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index — a composite of CEO expectations for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months — decreased 9.2 points from the fourth quarter to a reading of 95.2. However, the first-quarter index reading marks the ninth consecutive quarter where the index has exceeded the historical average of 82.4, signaling a continued positive direction for the US economy.

The Business Roundtable is an association of CEOs. The first-quarter 2010 survey included 139 member CEOs and was completed between Feb. 20 and March 8.