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CEO confidence falls from prerecession high, but sentiment about overall economy remains positive

July 07, 2017

Global CEO confidence fell in the second quarter after increasing to prerecession highs in the prior quarter, according to The Conference Board’s measure of CEO confidence. In the second quarter, the measure declined to a level of 61, down from 68 in the first quarter.

A reading of more than 50 reflects more positive than negative responses.

“CEO Confidence declined in Q2, but sentiment about the overall economy remains positive,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “CEOs are optimistic about the growth prospects for both mature and emerging economies, but expectations for Brazil have shifted from positive to neutral. Seven out of 10 CEOs expect profits will increase over the coming year, with market/demand growth and cost reductions the major driving forces.”

CEOs’ optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy moderated due to a greater percentage expressing a “more of the same” sentiment as opposed to foreseeing conditions worsening. Currently, 41% expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, compared to approximately 65% last quarter. The outlook for their own industries was also less favorable, with 48% of CEOs anticipating an improvement over the next six months, down from 67% in the first quarter of this year.

CEOs’ assessment of current conditions for the US declined from the enthusiasm seen in the first quarter, but still leads globally with sentiment now slightly above that expressed for Europe. CEOs’ assessment of current conditions remains slightly positive for India, China, and Japan, but sentiment for Brazil has turned slightly negative.

Looking ahead, CEOs’ short-term expectations for the US remain positive, but are more subdued than earlier in the year. Expectations for Europe improved, while sentiment regarding China and Japan was unchanged. Expectations for India were only slightly less positive, while the outlook for Brazil has shifted from positive to neutral.