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Automation may require up to 375 million to reskill by 2030, McKinsey report says

November 30, 2017

Between 75 million and 375 million workers globally will have to switch occupational categories and learn new skills by 2030 because of automation such as AI and robotics, according to a new report from McKinsey Global Institute, a think tank that is part of management consulting firm McKinsey & Co.

Titled “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation,” the report says jobs removed by automation could affect one-third of the workforces in the US and Germany alone

Jobs affected will vary by occupation and sector, according to the report. Physical jobs in predictable environments are the most susceptible to automation; these include operating machinery and fast-food jobs. In addition, jobs collecting and processing data are also susceptible; these include mortgage origination, paralegal work, accounting and back-office transaction processing.

Jobs less susceptible to automation include those that involve managing people, applying expertise and those that involved social interactions, the report said. Also, jobs in unpredictable environments — such as gardeners, plumbers or providers of child- and elder-care — could see less automation. This is because of difficulty in automating them and lower wages that make investment in machines less compelling, according to the report.

It also found several trends could create demand for millions of new jobs by 2030, and job growth could more than offset jobs lost to automation.

“These trends include caring for others in aging societies, raising energy efficiency and meeting climate challenges, producing goods and services for the expanding consuming class, especially in developing countries, not to mention the investment in technology, infrastructure, and buildings needed in all countries,” according to the executive summary of the report. “Taken from another angle, we also find that a growing and dynamic economy — in part fueled by technology itself and its contributions to productivity — would create jobs. These jobs would result from growth in current occupations due to demand and the creation of new types of occupations that may not have existed before, as has happened historically.”