The US will be short 100,000 healthcare workers by 2028, according to Mercer’s new Future of the US Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028 report.

“A shortage of 100,000 healthcare workers will exacerbate existing disparities in healthcare access in certain states,” Dan Lezotte, a partner in Mercer’s US workforce strategy and analytics practice, said in a press release. “It is imperative that healthcare systems take action and develop strategies to address shortages so patient care is not impacted.”

Nursing assistants have the biggest projected deficit over any other analyzed healthcare occupation, according to Mercer. It expects the US to be short by more than 73,000 nursing assistants nationwide. The slow growth rate for nursing assistants — especially in states such as New York, Texas and California — will directly impact patient care.

The healthcare worker deficits are not evenly spread out.

At the national level, the supply of registered nurses is projected to outpace demand, leading to an estimated surplus of nearly 30,000 by 2028. However, some states such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will experience shortages and may look to other states for supply.

The need for specialized primary care physicians — obstetrician-gynecologists, pediatricians and family medicine doctors — will be acute in certain states. California is expected to face a shortage of more than 2,500 primary care physicians despite an overall surplus of healthcare workers.

“American healthcare workers are under enormous strain,” William Self, a partner and Mercer’s global workforce strategy and analytics leader, said in a press release. “Burnout, under-compensation and wage stagnation have had material impacts on the supply of healthcare labor.”

Self continued, “Prolonged inflation in healthcare costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some healthcare systems. The inability to attract the right healthcare labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”