The number of temporary workers in the UK decreased by 8.6% year over year in the July-September 2024 quarter to approximately 1.50 million, according to seasonally adjusted data published on 12 November by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The data also found the number of temporary workers is down 0.03% when compared to the June through August quarter of this year.

Temporary workers represented 5.2% of all employees in the July-September quarter, according to the ONS figures.

Of the overall 1.50 million temporary workers during the period ended September 2024, approximately 352,453 were temporary because they could not find a permanent job; 441,626 did not want a permanent job; 154,694 had a contract with a period of training, and 556,755 cited other reasons.

Meanwhile, ONS data showed that the number of men who were temporary employees stood at approximately 714,973 during the July to September period, while the number of women who were temporary employees stood at approximately 790,556.

Labour market data by the ONS showed the UK unemployment rate for people aged 16 years and over was estimated at 4.3% in July to September 2024. This is above estimates of a year ago, and up in the latest quarter.

The highest unemployment rate was in London (5.9%) and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (2.0%).

The UK employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 74.8% in July to September 2024. This is largely unchanged on a year ago, but up in the latest quarter. In July to September 2024, the highest employment rate in the UK was in the South West (78.8%) and the lowest was in Wales (70.0%).

Further data showed that the UK economic inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years was estimated at 21.8% in July to September 2024. This is below estimates of a year ago, and down in the latest quarter. The highest economic inactivity rate was in Northern Ireland (28.2%) and the lowest was in the South West (18.2%).

The estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased in August to October 2024, by 35,000 on the quarter to 831,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 28th consecutive period but are still above pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic levels.

Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings excluding bonuses in the UK was 4.8% in July to September 2024, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 4.3%. This total annual growth is affected by the civil service one-off payments made in July and August 2023.

Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) for regular pay was 1.9% in July to September 2024, and for total pay was 1.4%.

There were an estimated 48,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in September 2024.

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 9,000 (0.0%) between August and September 2024, but rose by 136,000 (0.4%) between September 2023 and September 2024.

Payrolled employees fell by 9,000 (0.0%) over the quarter but rose by 182,000 (0.6%) over the year, when looking at July to September 2024, which is the period comparable with Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates.

The early estimate of payrolled employees for October 2024 decreased by 5,000 (0.0%) on the month but increased by 95,000 (0.3%) on the year, to 30.4 million. The October 2024 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data are received next month.

Comparing October 2024 with the same period last year, changes in the number of payrolled employees ranged from a 1.1% increase in Northern Ireland, to a 0.1% decrease in London.

The ONS noted that Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates have been affected by increased volatility, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, meaning that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.

Last month, it was reported that the chief economist of the Bank of England criticised the ONS in a private letter in May for failing since last year to produce reliable figures on unemployment and other aspects of the labour market.

Commentary

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) Chief Executive Neil Carberry said in a press release, “Today’s labour market statistics confirm the cooling trend on pay and vacancies suggested by the business surveys. This shows that the Bank of England is right to go for a period of rate cuts as pay pressures have eased and growth needs to be the focus.”

“Going for growth also means boosting business investment,” Carberry said. “Many businesses will be feeling bruised by the large increases to their employment costs in the Budget and Employment Rights Bill. Getting growth going is what makes changes more affordable, that’s why firms will be looking for real change on industrial strategy, public service reform and skills.”

Carberry continued, “The stable picture on temporary workers emphasises again how important flexible working is for workers and companies alike when things are uncertain. From keeping the NHS on its feet to helping people find their first steps in work, government needs to embrace the many ways in which people work today if it is to be successful. Backing temporary workers matters to our economy – but most of all to the temps themselves.”

Petra Tagg, director at Manpower UK, said in a press release, “Employers and workers up and down the UK are holding their nerve when it comes to hiring; whether that’s employees keeping their heads down and holding onto their roles or businesses sitting tight on recruitment plans as they assess the impact of the Employment Rights Bill and recent Budget. We’re seeing this paralysis of hiring and moving between roles as another signal of a hiring recession.”

“Our data suggests one in four employees believe they are going to get fired in the next six months,” Tagg said. “This comes at a time when British businesses get ready for increases to employer national insurance from next April. Although these increases affect employers in every sector and for every seniority level, we’re anticipating the hardest hit will be those whose workforce is made up of predominantly lower wage jobs. For some lower paid roles we estimate employers are facing an increase of around 33% on their national insurance contributions which is a cost they’ll have to find somewhere to avoid damaging their bottom line.”