The number of temporary workers in the UK fell 9.1% year over year in the May-July 2024 quarter to approximately 1.49 million, according to seasonally adjusted data released on 10 September by the Office for National Statistics. However, the number of temporary workers is up 0.69% when compared to the April through June quarter of this year.

Temporary workers represented 5.2% of all employees in the May-July quarter, according to the ONS.

Of the overall 1.49 million temporary workers during the period ended July 2024, approximately 304,933 were temporary because they could not find a permanent job; 433,603 did not want a permanent job; 147,907 had a contract with a period of training, and 613,250 cited other reasons.

The ONS data showed that the number of men who were temporary employees stood at approximately 726,977 during the May to July period, while the number of women who were temporary employees stood at approximately 772,717.

Further labour market data by the ONS showed the UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 74.8% in May to July 2024, below estimates of a year ago, but increased in the latest quarter.

From May to July 2024, the highest employment rate in the UK was in the Southwest (79.0%), and the lowest was in the Northeast (69.4%). The largest change in the employment rate was in the Northeast, down 3.9% compared with estimates a year ago; London saw the largest increase, up 2.8%.

The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 years and over) was estimated at 4.1% in May to July 2024, below estimates of a year ago, and decreased in the latest quarter.

From May to July 2024, the highest unemployment rate was in the Northeast (5.6%), and the lowest was in Northern Ireland (2.0%). The largest change in the unemployment rate was in the East Midlands, up 0.7% compared with estimates a year ago, while the East of England saw the largest decrease, down 1.1%.

The UK economic inactivity rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 21.9% in May to July 2024, above estimates of a year ago, but decreased in the latest quarter.

From May to July 2024, the highest economic inactivity rate was in Northern Ireland (27.5%), and the lowest was in the Southwest (18.3%); the Northeast saw the largest increase compared with estimates a year ago, while London saw the largest decrease.

In June 2024, the estimated number of jobs was 37.1 million, up by 503,000 from the level of a year ago but down by 28,000 on the quarter. Employee jobs increased by 386,000 from the level a year ago and by 62,000 on the quarter to 32.7 million.

Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK decreased by 6,000 (0.0%) between June and July 2024 but rose by 203,000 (0.7%) between July 2023 and July 2024.

The early estimate of payrolled employees for August 2024 decreased by 59,000 (negative 0.2%) on the month but increased by 122,000 (0.4%) on the year, to 30.3 million. The August 2024 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data received next month.

In June to August 2024, the estimated number of vacancies in the UK decreased by 42,000 on the quarter to 857,000. Vacancies decreased on the quarter for the 26th consecutive period but are still above pre- pandemic levels.

Annual growth in employees’ average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 5.1% in May to July 2024, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.0%. This total annual growth is affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023.

Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH)) for regular pay was 2.2% in May to July 2024, and for total pay was 1.1%.

There were an estimated 42,000 working days lost because of labour disputes across the UK in July 2024. Most of the strikes were in the health and social work sector.

Commentary

ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said in a press release, “Growth in total pay has slowed markedly again as one-off payments made to many public sector workers in June and July last year continue to affect the figures. Basic pay growth also continued to slow, though less sharply.”

McKeown said, “When taken together on a comparable basis, our different measures all show growth in the number of employees over the latest quarter, though annual growth has slowed over the year. Meanwhile, there was a decrease in the number of self-employed people and a fall in both those looking for a job and not looking for or available to start working.”

“Vacancies have fallen again, this quarter across every industry. However, the total number still remains a little above its pre-pandemic level,” McKeown added.

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) Chief Executive Neil Carberry said, “Employment is reasonably steady at the moment – no more than that. More noise from the new government about their growth plan would be helpful in steering employers’ thinking about how to invest, and in growing their confidence. This will put a bit more momentum into what is quite a turgid labour market right now.”

 “The slowdown in pay is quite clear now, despite the effects of awards in the public sector this summer. This should give confidence to the bank on the future path for interest rates. Lower cost of capital could also drive confidence in a business to invest,” Carberry said.

Michael Stull, managing director, ManpowerGroup UK, said, ““The current recruitment market is rather contradictory at present. On one hand there’s optimism and some excitement about the prospect of economic growth, whilst on the other, anxiety abounds regarding the detail of the new government’s legislative changes. There’s definitely a desire to pick up the hiring pace, but uncertainty still hangs in the air and jobs growth isn’t yet materialising because for all the positive intent, there’s still plenty of wavering.”