UK employers are indicating a growth mindset with an optimistic recruitment outlook for Q4 (October to November) 2024. The positive Net Employment Outlook of +28% – a measure of business hiring confidence – has increased by 8% on the quarter and by 2% on the year, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 2024.

The Outlook is calculated by surveying more than 2,000+ UK-based organisations about their recruitment plans for the next business quarter.

ManpowerGroup published its global data yesterday. The global hiring outlook weakened for Q4 2024 when compared to the same time last year by 5%. Global hiring strengthened from Q3 to Q4 2024, increasing by 3% to 25% from 22%. Employers in EMEA report the lowest hiring outlook among all regions at 21%. While hiring intentions weakened -3% compared to the same period last year, they have strengthened by 2% since Q3 2024.

The Q4 Employment Outlook for the UK said while the growth in confidence is to be welcomed following pre-election political uncertainty, ManpowerGroup views the Q4 hiring sentiment with cautious optimism because the positive hiring intent is not yet translating into new jobs.

Michael Stull, managing director of ManpowerGroup UK, said in a press release, “The UK’s recruitment market is rather contradictory at present. On one hand there’s optimism and some excitement about the prospect of economic growth, whilst on the other, anxiety abounds regarding the detail of the new government’s legislative changes.”

“There’s definitely a desire to pick up the hiring pace, but uncertainty still hangs in the air and jobs growth isn’t yet materialising because for all the positive intent, there’s still plenty of wavering,” Stull said.

More than a third of businesses surveyed by ManpowerGroup (36%) have consistently said this year they are planning to hire for growth. A similar number (35%) also say they will be hiring in Q4 because of backfilling vacancies (where positions are opened due to employee departures), while 27% plan to hire for specific projects or temporary initiatives requiring dedicated staff.

Sectors driving Q4 hiring demand include information technology, which has the strongest hiring outlook of any sector at +48%, followed by healthcare and life sciences (+29%), consumer goods and services (+28%) and energy & utilities (+27%), with consumer goods and services (+28%) and transport and logistics (+24%) both showing the biggest quarterly shifts, given their sectoral hiring outlooks were flat (0%) and +9% respectively in Q3.

Stull adds, “The next quarter is going to be a transitional period for many businesses as they further adapt to the new political environment and we get to see more detail regarding Labour’s workplace legislation over coming weeks now that parliament is back from summer recess.”