The UK job market faces an uncertain start to 2025 as employers are holding the line on their hiring plans for the new year, according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.

The survey showed overall hiring intentions for Q1 (January – March) 2025 are stagnant. The Net Employment Outlook, a measure of business hiring confidence, stood at +28%, unchanged since last quarter and a decrease by one percentage point on the year. The Outlook is calculated by surveying 2,000+ UK businesses about their recruitment plans for the next business quarter.

ManpowerGroup’s data shows of the businesses who plan to hire, the volume of employers intending to hire for business growth has been almost static across 2024. While employers’ appetite to hire remains strong, their confidence to go ahead and make new appointments is stalling and not translating into action.

Michael Stull, managing director of ManpowerGroup UK, said in a press release, “Businesses have been paralysed by the recent budget announcement, just as they were post-COVID. There is a strong appetite to grow, but the new government’s actions have thrown the labour market into yet another period of uncertainty. Businesses have been waiting to see signs of the economy kicking into gear, but the government has yet to give business the confidence to go ahead with plans for growth.”

“Our analysis shows the increase in National Insurance contributions could cost employers as much as 33% more for each lower wage worker from April next year. With dissatisfaction rising on this issue, we’re expecting wage growth to decline next year as the changing costs are indirectly passed onto employees,” added Stull.

Meanwhile, ManpowerGroup’s survey of employee perspectives, Global Talent Barometer, recently found that one in four UK employees feel at risk of unemployment in the next six months; 24% believe they are likely to be forced to leave their current job in the next six months, and 25% are not confident they could find another job that met their needs in the next six months.

“The needs of employees and employers are diverging, with clashes around flexibility and wage negotiations. But they also share common ground in holding their nerve; both sides standing still before making any definitive plans for the New Year,” Stull continued.