The number of US temporary jobs plunged by 48,500 in October, according to data out today from the US Bureau of Labor Statics. Total nonfarm employment was little changed, with only 12,000 jobs being added — the lowest job creation since the pandemic.

“The unexpected and extreme decline in temporary help suggests strike activity — and potentially the hurricanes as well — weighed heavily on demand for production labor broadly in October, and by headcount and number of hours, that slice represents the largest share of the temporary help workforce,” SIA Economist Michael Schultz said.

“This [pullback] is likely a blip due to the combined impacts of the hurricanes and strikes, but activity could be suppressed for additional weeks or months depending on how long rebuilding factories, transportation infrastructure and communities takes — and then also how long strike activity continues,” Schultz said.

Temp employment has fallen by approximately 577,000 jobs since reaching a high point of nearly 3.2 million in March 2022. It’s now at 2.6 million.

“While today’s BLS temporary help employment numbers were pulled down by hurricane and strike activity, we note that other measures such as the SIA Bullhorn Indicator and ASA Index report much more stable demand trends,” said Timothy Landhuis, VP of research at SIA.

“Nevertheless, the current slowdown in the US labor market is a reminder for staffing executives to continue to optimize their business in a more client-driven environment, including identifying pockets of demand, customizing services and enhancing client experience,” Landhuis continued.

Total US nonfarm employment changed little, with the country adding only 12,000 jobs for total employment of 159.0 million.

October’s temp penetration rate — temp jobs as a percent of total employment — was 1.64%, down from September’s reading of 1.67%.

Economists had expected this month’s nonfarm jobs number to be lower than previous months.

“I felt the numbers were going to come in low — everyone felt the numbers were going to come in low — not this low,” Monster Economist Giacomo Santangelo said in an interview with SIA. This was the lowest jobs-creation number since the pandemic.

Some had forecast the US would add 120,000 jobs, far more than the 12,000 added.

Strikes at Boeing and hurricanes Helene and Milton were cited as affecting jobs numbers, but Santangelo said there also remains uncertainty elsewhere. If workers and employers are cautious because of the election or because of concerns about an economic slowdown, we don’t know right now.

Santangelo also cited concerns about BLS revisions to data, which have been seeing downward revisions.

Total nonfarm employment for August was revised down by 81,000, and the September number was revised down by 31,000. The question remains: What does this mean for a number as low as 12,000? Could it be revised down to a job loss?

Of course, it is possible the number could be revised upwardly.

“If the error is random, then revisions should go up sometimes too,” Santangelo said.

Industries

Manufacturing employment fell by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity, the BLS reported.

On the other hand, healthcare added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with its average monthly gain of 58,000 over the past 12 months.

The US unemployment rate of 4.1% in October was unchanged from September. The college-level unemployment rate, which can serve as a proxy for professional employment, rose to 2.5% in October from 2.3% in September.

For more information on the jobs numbers, see SIA’s November 2024 Jobs Report released today.