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Near-term economic forecast gets upward revision

Near-term economic forecast gets upward revision

SIA Editorial Staff
| November 15, 2024
Upturn in the economy.

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Forecasters raised projections for near-term economic growth, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters released today.

They now predict that US gross domestic product will grow at an annual rate of 2.2% in this quarter and 1.9% in the first quarter of 2025. Forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed’s previous report called for growth of 1.7% in both this quarter and the next.

For the full year 2025, forecasters say GDP will grow by 2.2% before edging down to 2.1% growth in both 2026 and 2027.

Forecasters also estimated the US will add an average of 134,100 jobs per month in 2025. That’s up from their previous projection of 130,000 but still down from this year’s monthly average. The forecasters say the US is adding an average of 208,4000 jobs per month this year.

They also expect the US unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% in 2025 from 4.0% this year. They estimate it will edge down to 4.2% in 2026.

The report represents a survey of 33 forecasters.