Leading Economic Index slips, though recession not in picture
Leading Economic Index slips, though recession not in picture

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index pulled back in December 2024 with consumer expectations and new orders the main drags. However, the index is no longer signaling a recession.
It fell to a reading of 101.6 in December from November’s upwardly revised reading of 101.7.
“The Index fell slightly in December, failing to sustain November’s increase,” Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board, said in a press release. “Low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment, and a decline in building permits contributed to the decline.”
Still, half of the 10 components of the index contributed positively in December, Zabinska-La Monica noted.
“Moreover, the LEI’s six-month and 12-month growth rates were less negative, signaling fewer headwinds to US economic activity ahead,” she said.
The Conference Board expects growth momentum to remain strong to start the year and US real gross domestic product to expand by 2.3% in 2025.