How the US elections could affect recruiting
How the US elections could affect recruiting

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The three issues that people rank among most important when choosing a candidate — the economy, including jobs and the stock market; immigration; and inflation, including the cost of living — each touch on recruiting.
For example, immigration impacts the talent pool and whom recruiters can hire, Andrew Flowers, chief economist at programmatic job advertising provider Appcast, said in a webcast. Separately, inflation and cost of living can affect compensation and expected wage growth.
Flowers’s webcast, “How the US election could shape your 2025 recruitment strategy,” took place Oct. 15 and aimed to provide a nonpartisan view of the race’s impacts.
“We have a very inflationary environment for either candidate in terms of their fiscal impact,” he said, adding that voters do not appear to have an appetite for reining in spending.
And it’s a close call for recruiters this presidential election as the race is so tight, Flowers stressed.
“The presidency is essentially 50-50,” he said. “It’s razor thin. … It’s very close; it could go either way.”
The US House and Senate are also in play, Flowers said. It’s going to be close as to which party takes control of the House in November election, though forecasters believe the Senate could flip to the Republicans from the Democrats.
Factors influencing recruiting from the candidates include whether more tariffs are introduced, their policy toward deportation of undocumented workers and the individual tax rates under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 that are expiring at the end of 2025.
Flowers looked at four scenarios:
Scenario 1: Kamala Harris wins, and Congress is either split or both chambers go to the Republicans. There’s a 45% chance of this happening, and Flowers said the impact will be neutral on labor demand, labor supply and wages. The status quo on tariffs and taxes will likely remain, and there will only be modest tightening of border enforcement.
Scenario 2: A Republican mandate with the presidency and control of both chambers going to the Republicans. There’s a 30% chance of this happening, Flowers said. The impact on labor demand could be neutral, with potential tariffs slowing the economy and possible lower taxes boosting growth. However, potential mass deportations under the administration could have a negative effect on labor supply. Still, there could be a positive effect on wages, with inflationary, fiscal, trade and migration policies sending them higher.
Scenario 3: Donald Trump wins the presidency, and Congress is either split or both chambers go to the Democrats. Flowers gave this a 20% likelihood. Here, potential tariffs could slow growth, while the tax situation would likely remain in the status quo. The impact on labor supply would be neutral, with only a modest tightening of border enforcement. And inflationary fiscal and trade policies could have a positive effect on wages, causing them to rise.
Scenario 4: A Democratic mandate with the Democrats gaining control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress. There’s only a 5% chance of this happening, and it would likely have a neutral effect on labor demand, Flowers said. On the other hand, it could have a positive effect on labor supply, with robust immigration continuing and childcare policies in place. It could also have a positive effect on wages as labor power rises combined with inflationary fiscal policy.
The election is three weeks away on Nov. 5, and Flowers stressed that his analysis aimed to be a nonpartisan look at the facts, not support for a particular candidate or party.
“I hope you leave this webinar not knowing who I’m going to vote for,” he said.