Third-quarter GDP growth was revised upward to 3.1% in a new estimate released on December 19 by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is up from the previous estimate of 2.3%. Today’s estimate is the third and based on more complete source data than the previous two. 

The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. 

The increase in real GDP in the third quarter from the second quarter primarily reflected accelerations in exports, consumer spending and federal government spending, according to the bureau. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports also accelerated. 

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the July-to-September period, the third estimate of the figures. That compared to the previous projection of 2.8%. 

Growth in consumer spending was marked up to 3.7% — the fastest since early 2023 — and exports also grew faster than previously estimated, both due to services. 

The new estimate reinforces the notion that the economy is still powering ahead despite expectations among forecasters for an eventual slowdown, Bloomberg reported. The report comes after the Federal Reserve triggered a stock market selloff on Wednesday by suggesting a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, in part premised on recent stronger-than-expected economic data. 

Wednesday’s interest rate cut was seen as “broadly positive” for staffing, according to SIA Economist Michael Schultz. 

“This week’s data show the economy is set to end 2024 on a solid note, which is fortunate since we’ll have to contend with heightened policy uncertainty and possibly greater challenges in 2025,” Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide, said in a note quoted by Bloomberg. “We think the Fed maintains an easing bias, but the bar for rate cuts just got higher.” 

The bureau will announce an advance estimate for fourth-quarter GDP and full-year 2024 on Jan. 30, 2025.