The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined in February to its lowest level since October 2024. Turning points indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or losses is about to occur in the coming months.

The index fell to a reading of 108.56 in February 2025 from an upwardly revised reading of 109.45 in January.

“Growing policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on business and consumer sentiment, with more substantial impacts from federal layoffs and funding disruptions expected in the months ahead,” Mitchell Barnes, economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release.

The share of consumers who report “jobs are hard to get” — an ETI component from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index — rose 1.8 percentage points in February. The share of small firms that report jobs are “not able to be filled right now” rose to 38% from 35% , its largest monthly increase in nearly a year. These trends reflect modest declines in perceived labor market strength despite measures of economic activity remaining stable, according to the report.

While recently announced federal and private-sector layoffs weren’t fully captured in February’s Employment Report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, several ETI components show potential early warning signs of wavering conditions, according to Barnes.

For example, initial claims for unemployment insurance ticked up 3.4% in February to 224,000, and the share of involuntary part-time workers rose to 18% in February from 16.7% in January, its highest level since 2021.

Employment in the temporary help industry also declined, with total temp job losses of 22,000 over January and February 2025. The US added 151,000 nonfarm jobs in February, according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statics, down from the 120,000 that some economists thought that the economy would add, and US temp jobs fell by 12,300 in the first month of the year.

“The jobs market remains healthy overall, but risks of a slowdown in the hiring environment are emerging. Uncertainty is likely to make employers more cautious and, if prolonged, could portend more pronounced labor market weakness in the coming months,” Barnes said. “Despite a resilient end to 2024, momentum in the US labor market is clearly at risk of fading.”