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Election is today; some see brighter economy ahead

Election is today; some see brighter economy ahead

Craig Johnson
| November 5, 2024
Vote Here sign for election day

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Today is Election Day, and some are weighing in on the possible impact of today’s vote on the US economy.

Adecco Group CEO Denis Machuel told AFP that regardless of who wins, hiring in the US should recover post-election, according to a report in Barron’s.

Businesses don’t like uncertainty: They like to know what’s going to happen. And that level of uncertainty hasn’t really helped the US market,” according to the report in Barron’s. “Once this is over, no matter who wins, were going to have more tailwinds than we had so far.

The election and uncertainty were also mentioned in Robert Half’s earnings call on Oct. 22.

With lower inflation and widespread expectations of further rate cuts, the NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index has been up five of the last six months,” President and CEO M. Keith Waddell said in the call. “That said, the NFIB’s Uncertainty Index is at all-time highs, in part due to the upcoming US elections. Many economists are making upward revisions to their forecasts, and as we get past the elections, the overall macro environment should begin to improve.

The Institute for Supply Management also mentioned the election in its Services ISM report, noting that “concerns over political uncertainty were again more prevalent than the previous month.”

Overall, the ISM noted its Services PMI rose to a reading of 56% — the highest since July 2022 — indicating faster expansion in the US services sector. However, the report is based on data from purchasing and supply executives across the US, and several comments were made on the election.

Seeing emerging projects in our technology business line as well as in energy-related projects, where many customers are looking forward — post-election — to release their next phases,” one purchasing and supply executive said.

Another ISM comment noted that new orders were slightly lower because of funds being held back until after the election.

And it’s not just the presidential election influencing the industry. Several states are voting on minimum wage rates, and Massachusetts voters are weighing in on whether to provide a path for independent contractor drivers at firms such as Uber to join unions, Reuters reported.

In California, voters are deciding on state Proposition 32, which would raise the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour by 2026. The state already requires fast-food workers to be paid $20 per hour.