Consumers feel it’s slightly less likely they will either lose their jobs over the next 12 months or leave voluntarily, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations.

It found the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months fell by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3%, which is below the 12-month trailing average of 13.7%.

In addition, the New York Fed’s report found the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily fell to 19.1% in August from 20.7% in July.

Other findings included:

• The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 52.3%, remaining below the 12-month trailing average of 53.9%.
• Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth increased to 2.9% from 2.7%, just above its 12-month trailing average of 2.8%. The increase was most pronounced for respondents in households with less than $50,000 annual income.
• Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — increased to 37.7% from 36.6% in July.