Consumers’ expectations of inflation were roughly stable, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations released on Feb. 10. Their take on the jobs market was mixed.

It found that inflation expectations were unchanged at the short- and medium-term horizons but increased in the long term.

In terms of labor, both job loss and job finding expectations rose, though unemployment expectations fell to their lowest level since July 2021, according to the research.

Among the findings in the report:

• Median inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.0% at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons. Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0% in January. This increase was driven primarily by respondents with a high school education or less.
• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 3.0% in January. This series has been moving within a narrow range between 2.7% and 3.0% since January 2024.
• Mean unemployment expectations — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — decreased by 0.6 percentage point to 34.0%, the measure’s lowest reading since July 2021. The decline was driven by respondents with no college degree, those with an annual income below $100,000 and those above age 40.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased by 2.3 percentage points to 14.2%. This increase was broad-based across demographic groups but most pronounced for those over the age of 60. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased by 1.7 percentage points to 19.9%. This increase was most pronounced for those with an annual household income below $50,000.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost increased by 1.3 percentage points to 51.5%. This increase was driven by those with an annual household income below $100,000.

The survey is based on a national representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month.