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Consumer inflation expectations decline 

Consumer inflation expectations decline 

July 9, 2024
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Consumers’ inflation expectations declined in June, though the perceived probability of losing a job rose, according to the Survey of Consumer Expectations released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data. 

Median one- and five-year-ahead inflation expectations both fell by 0.2 percentage point in June to 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively. 

However, the report noted the median three-year inflation expectations rose by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%. 

Looking at the labor market, the report found consumers’ mean perceived probability of losing their job in the next 12 months rose by 2.4 percentage points in June to 14.8%. This has ranged widely since the beginning of the year with 15.7% at the top end and 11.8% at the low end. 

In addition, the mean perceived probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months rose by 0.9 percentage point to 20.5% in June. It’s above the series’ 12-month trailing average of 19.0%. 

Other labor market findings included: 

  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one’s current job was lost) increased to 53.4% from 52.2% in June, the measure’s highest value since January 2024 but still below its February 2020 prepandemic level of 58.7%. 
  • Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth increased by 0.3 percentage point to 3.0% — the measure’s highest reading since September 2023.