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The Conference Board index predicts modest cooling in job market

The Conference Board index predicts modest cooling in job market

July 8, 2024
Upturn in the economy.

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The US labor market could cool modestly in the second half of the year, The Conference Board reported, citing its Employment Trends Index.

In June, the index fell to a reading of 110.27 from May’s downwardly revised reading of 111.04.

“The ETI fell in June, continuing the downward trajectory observed since the measure peaked in March 2022,” Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board, said in a press release.

“June’s ETI downtick signals employment could fall in the second half of 2024,” Baltrus said. “However, the index remains above its prepandemic level, and payrolls growth remains healthy, albeit at a reduced pace compared to the outsized gains experienced during the pandemic recovery.”

June’s index reading suggests a reduction in US employment, though The Conference Board estimates the labor market will only cool modestly.

“Indeed, as long as companies are willing to retain workers, net nonfarm payrolls are likely to remain positive,” Baltrus said.