Conditions for the travel nurse segment will improve in 2025, but the segment may still fail to see annual growth, according to a new review of recent data points by SIA. This is due in part to the likelihood of continuing year-over-year revenue declines in the first two quarters of 2025.

SIA published the US Staffing Industry Forecast report in September, projecting 5% growth in travel nurse staffing in 2025, and that report anticipated improvement in staffing volumes in third and fourth quarters of this year. Since then, travel nurse volumes and bill rates have remained subdued and a much-anticipated ramp in business has failed to materialize in the second half of the year.

Travel nurse staffing continued to decline in the third quarter of this year at AMN Healthcare and Cross Country Healthcare, with both volumes and bill rates trending flat to down sequentially. According to their third-quarter earnings reports, hospitals submitted a large number of travel nurse orders with bill rates that were below current market rates, leading to a higher percentage of unfilled positions. AMN Healthcare reported their travel nurse staffing revenue dropped by 37% year over year and 12% sequentially. Bill rates were down 2% sequentially. Similarly, Cross Country reported their travel nurse revenue was down 41% from the prior year and 11% sequentially.

Market-leader Aya Healthcare provides a set of publicly available demand indexes, highlighting travel nursing job market trends via the Aya Index. Over the past three months, travel nurse orders have remained below prior year levels, showing a similar pattern of a ramp during the first half of November followed by a decline in the second half of November and into December. As of Dec. 10, travel nurse orders had decreased 24% over the past 30 days, and were down 11% versus the prior year.

According to SIA’s November US Pulse Survey, a net 8% of travel nurse staffing firms reported a decreasing trend in bill rates over the past three months. This was based on responses from 40 travel nurse staffing firms who participated in the survey. A net 26% of these same firms also reported a decreasing trend in gross margin during the same period.

 At SIA’s Healthcare Staffing Summit in November, our conversations with travel nurse staffing firm executives indicated varied perspectives on the 2025 market landscape. Anecdotally, some large healthcare staffing firms were more restrained in their revenue projections, while some smaller firms were more optimistic, with some already reporting increases in revenue — specifically in hard to fill specialties such as ER, ICU and telemetry.

In another note, new technology solutions are increasing the value proposition that healthcare staffing firms can offer their clients, offering the potential for delivering new types of workforce solutions and reaching a broader base of clients.

The healthcare staffing industry continues to play a crucial role in supporting health systems despite challenges in specific segments like travel nursing. By offering flexible staffing solutions, providing access to specialized nurses (specifically in high-need areas) and leveraging technology and data, travel nurse firms can position themselves as crucial partners for health systems in meeting ongoing staffing challenges and patient demand. We look forward to tracking how these trends play out next year.

SIA’s next full forecast will be published in March 2025 and be discussed at the Executive Forum North America conference in Miami that runs from March 10 to March 13, 2025.