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European elections: Outcomes leave upheaval in their wake

CWS 3.0 - Contingent Workforce Strategies

European elections: Outcomes leave upheaval in their wake

Fiona Coombe
| July 16, 2024
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This year has already seen more than 1 billion voters go to the polls across the globe — and in the last month, three elections in Europe have created political upheaval.

In June, 185 million votes were cast across the 27 member states of the European Union to elect the bloc’s lawmakers to the European Parliament. While the center-right European People’s Party scored a clear victory, far-right parties made significant gains in France (31%), Italy (29%) and Germany (16%). The incoming European Parliament is therefore more fragmented and polarized.

Europe-wide issues such as immigration, climate change action, energy prices, economic woes and military assistance to Ukraine all played a role in the campaigns.

The impact of the European Parliament elections may result in more restrictive EU-wide immigration policies and a more conservative social agenda. The voting record of the far-right Members of the European Parliament shows that they block legislative initiatives to further labor rights, collective bargaining and universal welfare. While this may not impact directives already approved — such as the directives on platform workers, pay transparency, minimum wage and corporate sustainability due diligence — further measures extending workers’ rights and environmental protections may stall.

Also in Europe, two snap elections were called by the premiers of the UK and France, resulting in two very different outcomes. While the success of the UK Labour party was predicted months ago, the final result in France confounded everyone, with a lurch to the left leaving the expectant right-wing party in third place after winning the first round of voting. Both seem at odds with the outcome of the European elections but signal a desire for change. But what will this mean for those involved in the workforce solutions sector?

UK. The Labour Party’s Plan to Make Work Pay: Delivering a New Deal for Working People included 20 pages of employment law reforms. Although much of the detail is yet to be set out, we can expect reform relatively quickly with Labour committed to hitting the ground running and introducing legislation within 100 days of entering government. Some of the manifesto’s pledges will impact the contingent workforce in the UK, including:

  1. Ending “one-sided” flexibility by banning “exploitative” zero-hours contracts and ensuring everyone has the right to a contract that reflects the number of hours they regularly work based on a 12-week reference period. This also means ensuring all workers get reasonable notice of any change in shifts or working time with compensation that is proportionate to the notice given for any shifts cancelled or curtailed.
  2. Giving all workers basic individual rights from day one, including protection against unfair dismissal, parental leave and sick pay. 
  3. Removing the difference in legal status between an employee and a worker, simplifying the law surrounding employment status by categorizing an individual as either self-employed or a worker.

These measures will potentially remove some of the flexibility of temporary work and will increase the cost of temporary workers. Staffing firms will have an increased financial burden if they must employ all their agency workers, pay them between assignments, provide notice and follow fair procedures before dismissing them or laying them off when there is no work and pay compensation for unfair dismissal and redundancy. The devil will be in the details, and the extent of any damage will depend on the strength of opposition from the business and agency sector lobby.

France. Meanwhile, the New Popular Front’s surprise win in the election in France delivered a stunning blow to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and President Macron’s centrist coalition group, Ensemble. However, it finished well short of a working majority.

The NFP — made up of the French Communist Party, the hard-left France Unbowed, Greens and Socialist Party — says Macron must name a prime minister from among their ranks, as it is the bloc with the largest number of National Assembly seats. However, the hastily assembled bloc has been unable to put forward a consensus candidate. France Unbowed’s leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon, says a PM should come from its party, but the more moderate Socialists have refused this.

The NFP is keen on increasing the net monthly minimum wage from €1,399 to €1,600 (US $1,515.72 to $1,733.49), raising civil servants’ wages, introducing a “dignity guarantee” for the poorest in society and a monthly autonomy allowance for young people. The policy platform for a previous left-wing coalition of the NFP’s parties defended reducing the legal retirement age to 60 from 62 without reducing the level of pensions and creating a tranche of new public sector jobs.

The result in France means there will be a period of uncertainty as the political parties try to reach consensus to form a new government. This uncertainty may last until July 2025, as Macron cannot call another election for 12 months. However, in the meantime, President Macron’s attempts to introduce more business-friendly reforms may be halted or even reversed.

As we now look forward to November and the US election, it is clear that voters across the world want change and that politics is becoming more fragmented — but, as these European elections have shown, there is no clear direction of travel.