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Growth in the global economy will slow to 3.0 percent in 2013 from 3.2 percent in 2012, according to The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook report released today. Annual global growth will remain at an average of 3.0 percent from 2013 to 2018, before declining still further to an average 2.5 percent from 2019 to 2025.
“Mature economies are still healing the scars of the 2008–2009 crisis,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist of The Conference Board. “But unlike in 2010 and 2011, emerging markets did not pick up the slack in 2012, and won’t do so in 2013. Uncertainty across the regions — from the post-election ‘fiscal cliff’ question in the U.S. to the Chinese leadership transition and reforms in the Euro Area — will continue to have global impacts in sluggish trade and tepid foreign direct investment.”
The long-term global slowdown projected to 2025 will be driven largely by structural transformations in the emerging economies. As China, India, Brazil and others mature from rapid, investment-intensive “catch-up” growth to a more balanced model, the structural ”speed limits” of their economies are likely to decline, bringing down global growth despite the recovery we expect in advanced economies after 2013.