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Economic growth to slow, but no recession

November 19 2007

Economic growth will slow and unemployment will grow but no recession is forecast, according to The National Association for Business Economics' outlook report. Gross domestic product growth will slow to an annualized pace of 1.5% in the fourth quarter while next year's GDP growth will be 2.6%. Unemployment will average 4.9% next year, compared with the current level of 4.7%.

"While the U.S. economy faces a higher risk of recession from credit markets, housing, and energy prices, NABE's panelists still do not see recession as the most likely outcome," said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick NABE president and chief economist at Ford Motor Co.

NABE's report is similar to the Survey of Professional Forecasters released last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It also forecast slower fourth-quarter GDP growth and higher unemployment next year.

The NABE report is the consensus of forecasts made by a panel of 50 forecasters.

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