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China – Employment outlook weakens for H2 2013

23 July 2013

Chinese employers’ hiring intentions will weaken in the second half of 2013, according to ManpowerGroup’s Q3 2013 Employment Outlook Survey. The net employment outlook for the Chinese mainland is 12% for the third quarter of 2013, a fall of -5% compared with the same period last year.

Employers’ hiring intentions have reportedly fallen across all industry sectors and all regions. ManpowerGroup predicts that China’s net employment outlook will slip to its weakest level since the first quarter of 2010. This prediction is corroborated by Zhaopin.com, a human resource services provider, which reported a -6% drop in recruitment growth during H1 2013, compared with H1 2012.

The global economic slowdown has impacted China’s GDP and subsequently impacted employment figures. Some institutions have different opinions on China’s GDP growth forecast for the second half of the year, according to People’s Daily. Nomura Securities reported the most negative outlook with a 30% possibility of GDP falling below 7%. 

The impact of falling GDP on the job market in H2 2013 is uncertain, with reports that China’s employment will remain steady due to workforce numbers falling at the same rate as demand. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the working-age population in the mainland reduced by 3.45 million between 2011 and 2012.

Unemployment has become a priority for the Chinese government in recent months. If Nomura Securities’ prediction of GDP falling below 7% is realised, there is concern than unemployment levels could rise dramatically. 

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