The outlook for US gross domestic product over the next three years is weaker than it was three months ago, according to the new second-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The 44 forecasters surveyed also revised downward their estimates of job growth in in 2015 and 2016, but see a slightly improved outlook for the unemployment rate.

Growth in the US real GDP this quarter will be at an annual rate of 2.5%, down from the previous estimate of 3.0%. The current projection for growth in the annual-average level of real GDP in 2015 fell to 2.4% in this survey from the previous estimate of 3.2%.

The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 5.4% in 2015, unchanged from the previous survey. However, it is expected to fall to 5.0% in 2016 and 4.8% in both 2017 and 2018, below projections in the last survey.

Estimated monthly jobs gains in 2015 were lowered to 243,900 from 252,500, and estimated at 180,100 in 2016.

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