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US economic outlook strong despite weak Q1, NABE reports

April 22, 2015

The US economic outlook remains strong despite a weak first quarter, according to the National Association for Business Economics in the release of its first-quarter business conditions survey of 77 NABE members.

“Over the past three months, the prices of crude oil and the dollar have not had a material impact on the outlook for the majority of respondents’ firms,” said NABE President John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “Due to unusually harsh weather and dock strikes on the West Coast, growth in the first quarter appears to be an outlier within the broader economic outlook.”

The report also cited a modest increase in hiring; 35% of survey respondents reported additional hiring at their firms in the first quarter, up from 34% in the fourth quarter report and 28% in the first quarter of 2014.

The share of respondents reporting employment declines in the first-quarter survey edged down to 7%. As a result, the net rising index for employment edged up slightly to 28, the highest employment net rising index since July 2014.

The share of respondents reporting rising wages and salaries at their firms increased again in the first quarter to 45%, up from 31% in the fourth quarter and 35% in the first quarter of last year. After surging in January 2015, the first-quarter results show expectations for rising wages and salaries were relatively stable from the previous survey. Forty-six percent of respondents anticipate increases, for a net rising index of 44, compared to a net rising index of 46 in the first-quarter survey.

The trend in survey results over the last six months suggests that perhaps a tighter job market is becoming more evident, according to NABE. Panelists were asked if their firms had difficulties filling open positions over the last three months of 2015. Of the 63 responses received, 57% indicated there was no difficulty filling open positions, down from 63% in the previous survey. However, the share of panelists from TUIC and services firms reporting difficulty significantly increased to 20% from 15% in last survey.

NABE is a professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace.