US real gross domestic product edged up at an annual rate of only 0.2% in the first quarter, according to the “advance” estimate released today by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. It increased by 2.2% in the fourth quarter.

Positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and private inventory investment were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports — which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP — increased.

Bloomberg reports today’s estimate fell short of the median forecast of 86 economists surveyed, which called for a 1.0% pace.

Excluding the large buildup of inventories, the economy actually shrank by 0.5%, according to The Conference Board.

“While the reported 0.2 percent partly reflects temporary factors, such as port closings and bad weather, and underestimates the current trend in the US economy, we do think that economic growth is weakening,” The Conference Board said in a statement. “The downward pressure on profits, the large drop in oil related investment and the strong dollar are holding back the US economy. While the weak consumption of goods was partly a result of bad weather, it seems that most of the boost from oil prices already took place in the previous quarter. Despite extremely low interest rates, residential investment continues to grow unusually slowly, partly a result of very weak household formation. For the second quarter in a row, the strong dollar resulted in a negative contribution from net trade of more than 1 percent to real GDP.”

Growth in the staffing industry is strongly correlated with GDP growth, according to research from Staffing Industry Analysts.