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US - Forecasters raise jobs estimate, still unemployment rate to remain high

November 25 2013

Economists say more jobs will be added than initially estimated in the fourth quarter and next year, but the unemployment rate will remain high, according to the fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The report includes forecasts from 42 economists.

An estimated 187,300 jobs will be added on average each month in the fourth quarter, according to the fourth-quarter forecast released today. That’s up from an estimate of 178,600 made in the forecasters’ previous report.

However, the unemployment rate is expected to be an average of 7.2 percent per month in the fourth quarter, according to the new report. That’s down from 7.3 percent in the last report.

The fourth-quarter report also estimated the U.S. would add an average of 189,900 jobs per month for full year 2014, up from an earlier estimate of 180,100. However, the unemployment rate in 2014 was little changed at 7.0 percent, down from 7.1 percent in the previous estimate.

Real gross domestic product estimates by the forecasters in the fourth quarter report were little changed from the last estimate.

Click on chart below to enlarge.

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