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U.S. unemployment will stay close to the current 7.9 percent rate in 2013 but gradually decline to 7.2 percent by the end of 2014, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast’s fourth and final quarterly report of 2012.
The outlook predicts U.S. gross domestic product will grow at less than a 2 percent annual rate through mid-2013. After that, the forecast expects growth to pick up and exceed 3 percent for most of 2014 with housing activity leading the way. By the end of the forecast period, inflation is expected to be above the Fed’s 2 percent target, bringing an end to the zero interest rate policy that has been in place since late 2008.