Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax will record the fastest economic growth rates this year among the 13 census metropolitan areas covered in The Conference Board of Canada’s Metropolitan Outlook: Spring 2015. Meanwhile, the report calls for long-standing economic leaders Calgary and Edmonton to fall into recession in 2015.

Hit hard by the slump in oil prices, the economies of Calgary and Edmonton are expected to shrink by 1.2% and 0.8% respectively. But with oil prices expected to recover somewhat next year, modest economic growth is anticipated for both cities next year; Calgary’s real GDP is forecast to rise by 1.5% and Edmonton’s real GDP is expected to rise 1.3% in 2016.

 “The collapse in oil prices has significantly altered the economic outlook among Canada’s largest cities. Most other cities will see their economic fortunes improve this year, thanks largely to a weaker Canadian dollar and a stronger US economy,” said Alan Arcand, associate director, Centre for Municipal Studies. “On the other hand, the slump in oil prices will take its toll on the economies of Calgary and Edmonton and to a lesser extent on Regina and Saskatoon.”

Aside from Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon, the outlook called for improved economic growth this year for most of the 13 census metropolitan areas it covered.

Expected GDP growth in 2015:

• Toronto: +3.1%
• Vancouver: +3.1%
• Halifax: +3.1%
• Hamilton: +2.7%
• Montreal: +2.6%
• Winnipeg: +2.5%
• Québec City: +2.4%
• Victoria: +2.1%
• Regina: +1.9%
• Saskatoon: +1.8%
• Ottawa-Gatineau: +1.3%
• Edmonton: -0.8%
• Calgary: -1.2%