Economists are projecting stronger growth than anticipated over the next three quarters, according to the first quarter 2010 Survey of Professional Forecasters released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. However, this upward revision comes at the expense of slower growth at year's end.

The forecasters are predicting that the U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.7% over each of the next five quarters. On a year-over-year basis, real GDP is expected to grow 3.0% in 2010, up from their prediction of 2.4% in the last survey.  The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.9% in 2011, 3.4% in 2012, and 3.1% in 2013.

The forecasters expect unemployment to hit 9.9% in the first and second quarters before going down to 9.8% in the third and 9.7% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.8% in 2010, before falling to 9.2% in 2011, 8.3% in 2012, and 7.3% in 2013.

Economists see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 600 jobs per month this quarter and 117,600 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark upward revisions from the previous survey. Over the second half of 2010, jobs will grow at an average rate of 96,000 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 59,000 in 2010.